2010, The Year Ahead

2010 will be a bad year for Thailand, particularly the tourism industry. Worse than 2009. With unemployment picked to peak in many Western countries, interest rates likely to rise and salaries and wages going nowhere any time soon, many people just don't
have the money to travel abroad. And with Thailand still polarised on the political front, suffering increasing unemployment and its reputation taking a hit, how are things going to get better?

I really do think that 2010 is going to be dire. Businesses are going to suffer and more than a few will go bust. It will be bad for Thais and it won't be great for some foreigners in business in Thailand either.

It would not surprise me if there are in fact more visitors to Thailand in 2010 than 2009. But there will be less Caucasians, both in number and as a percentage of all visitors. Thailand is promoting itself in the Middle East and Asia and growth in tourist
numbers looks like it will come from the likes of India and China. As more visitors from these emerging markets arrive, local businesses might start to target them more. How or even whether this has any effect on the venues Westerners frequent
remains to be seen.

It's hard to see how the nightlife industry is in for anything but another terrible year. Fewer visitors and perhaps those who do visit spending less is a recipe for disaster. That there are more bars open today than ever before just makes it worse.
There's less money to go around. 2009 was bad but surprisingly not that many went under. The value of bars must have plummeted – and that's assuming a buyer could be found. This trend can only continue and apart from the most successful
venues, expect those bars that do sell to go for much less than they otherwise might have.

Soi Cowboy has dominated for the last few years and the lane hasn't rested on its laurels. It has evolved, and dare I say it, improved. There's more neon, older bars have been refurbished and the outdoor seating areas where you can watch the
world go by are a nice touch and proving popular. Soi Cowboy has dominated for so long that bars in the other areas know they have to do something to give punters a reason to venture their way.

Nana has a fight on its hands although the recently relaxed birthday suit policy (see the news section below) evens the playing field somewhat. The attitudes of many Nana girls still resemble the smell of that which comes out their ass,
but with similar attitudes increasingly found in Cowboy – and more Cowboy bars adopting Nana prices, Nana could benefit. The biggest issue Nana faces is that the master lease expires December 31st 2012 and until there is some clarity as to whether
it will be extended – which I seriously doubt – it's hard to see any real investment made. I would not be surprised to see bad attitudes become more common on Cowboy as the bars' success goes to the girls' heads. That's part
of what happened in Nana and a major contributing factor in its decline in popularity. Nana will benefit as Cowboy's success is breeding bad attitudes and higher prices – but it won't change overnight. Nana is in with a chance.

Patpong could be an area to watch. Soi 2 is coming along but it needs more new bars to really put it back on the map. New venues Black Pagoda and Bada Bing are a step in the right direction, but to get the masses heading back that way it needs more. Patpong
soi 1 is a total write off and even Safari is barely worth a drink these days. I don't see this changing and I would not be surprised to see Patpong soi 2 become the nightlife hub of the area and Patpong soi 1 cement its reputation as a place
to buy knock off watches, handbags and football shirts.

What can the bar owners do to turn things around? Undoubtedly price collusion will be considered. It won't work. Even if all the bars in one area were to collude on pricing, punters would head off to another bar area. Paying higher wages to get the
prettiest girls helps but it can put pressure on drinks prices. I'd like to see a few bars go the way of Angelwitch which actually makes an effort on its shows with the girls spending time practicing with a choreographer. It's no fluke
that Angelwitch's shows are in a class of their own. Staff ought to be trained but few bars make the effort. Another business model to replicate, one which has proven to be hugely successful, is to launch a website, not just a small site
for the purpose of marketing, but one which provides industry-wide information and discussion – as Secrets in Pattaya has done with great success. More bars should try it.

One prediction I have for the bar industry this coming year is the demise of the Western bar manager. As bars look at ways of cutting costs, the 60,000 or 70,000 baht monthly salary typically paid to a foreign manager will be one of the first expenses
slashed. Licker Larry (or is it No Liquor Larry?) and Ricky are safe, others I'm not so sure about. Foreign bar managers are going to have to show that they bring value to the business and will have quite a job convincing owners who aren't
always aware of their value.

An online presence will become more important to the naughty bars. These days it's all about getting the word out online. More and more bars are commissioning photographers and web designers to put together a quality website to promote the bar.

Basic economic theory suggests that there is a massive oversupply of bars in Pattaya – and in Bangkok to a lesser extent – so prices should remain at current levels. That's the theory, at least, but then in Thailand it seems even
the most basic economic theory doesn't necessarily apply.

If nothing else, we should forget that nothing stays the same in this industry. What is popular today may not be popular tomorrow – or might not even exist tomorrow. A few years back, Club Boesche in Pattaya's Covent Garden was all the rage and some
old Pattaya hands went as far to say that it was the best gogo they had ever experienced. But today it seems to be something of a single mothers' club where you must be overweight and have a map of the world on your stomach and / or tramp stamps to be hired. The way things change so quickly no one can guarantee Cowboy's dominance continuing or any of the most popular bars today necessarily remaining popular in 2010. But with that said, who would bet against Baccarra and Rainbow 4
in Bangkok and Happy and Peppermint in Pattaya not being the top bars at the end of 2010?

As far as the girls themselves go, there are a lot of unemployed women in Thailand, educated women, often women who did well for a few years, setting themselves up in Bangkok, perhaps purchasing a car or a place of their own, all on credit of course.
Living away from their family and experiencing the freedom of life in Bangkok, it's heartbreaking when they lose their income and are faced with losing their lifestyle. I reckon we will see more women who once had a decent income turning
to the bar industry, perhaps freelancing as opposed to jiggling their booty next to a chrome pole. And there's no reason to think the flow of women into the industry from the provinces, uneducated women and single mothers will slow.

I predict that we will see more signs stating something to the effect of "This restaurant / bar is foreign-owned and managed" mimicking the way a number of Italian restaurants in Thailand have a sign proudly stating that they have an Italian
chef. The penny has dropped. Foreign-owned and managed venues better understand foreign customers' expectations, are more customer focused and strive to satisfy. How Thais, both customers and competitors, react to such signs will be interesting.

The clean cut, clean-living image of Apisit and Korn, the top dogs in the Democrat Party, has flowed over into policy with crackdowns on piracy and counterfeit goods as well as a nationwide crackdown on drinking and driving. Expect this to continue although
it's disappointing to see that corruption is getting worse and worse. At the street level, cops are hungrier and it seems that seldom do they let an opportunity pass. Foreigners who don't know how the system works and
who are terrified of ending up in the Bangkok Hilton remain an easy mark.

It's hard to see our situation, that is us as a group – foreigners in Thailand – often perceived as rich uninvited outsiders, improving. We will continue to be a target for criminals as well as the scapegoats for all that is wrong in Thailand.

There's disillusionment amongst some who were once ardent Thailand fans. A number of foreign residents of Thailand are looking farther afield. For naughty boys, Angeles City in the Philippines may see an influx of the "once loved Thailand but
are looking at elsewhere club".

Of course there are a few events which could play a major part in the country's future. The big one is the possible return of Mr. T. If that happens, all bets are off. The consequences would reach every corner of the country from som tam sellers to taxi drivers to businessmen to foreign residents and visitors.

As far as this column goes, if 2009 was the year when things became edgier, 2010 is the year when things will become distinctly dark. Expect me to tread on some toes, take no prisoners and take some genuine risks. What has been spicy will become distinctly
spicier but for the first couple of months of the new year you won't see any fireworks.

I can't help but think that for 2010, it will be like Thailand is sitting at a red light, not really going anywhere. If the country can get through 2010 relatively unscathed then things might, hopefully, start to look a little brighter in 2011.

I don't think Thailand's the place to be sinking money into at this point in time although if you have the reserves to see the year through, there might be some business bargains to be had.

For a final prediction, Summers will be very different in 2010. It will be like experiencing an entirely different lifestyle.

I do think that despite my predictions of doom and gloom, Thailand will be a great place for a holiday. Vendors, businesses and businesswomen will be desperate for your money and with a bit of luck there will be some bargains to be had.
For those who make the effort to get to Thailand in 2010, you could be in for a very nice time!

Last week's photo

Where was this photo taken?

FROM STICK'S INBOX (These are emails from readers and what is written here was not written by Stick.) Preference may be given to emails which refer to the previous week's column.

EMAIL OF THE WEEK Angeles – where mothers, children and buffaloes are healthy.

It all comes back to face.

Racism in Thailand.

Pattaya, home of fat, drunk white men!

What are they up to?

Baccarra, a licence to print money.

There's an alien in the house!

In Nana Plaza few bars have lived up to the term titty bars for years but that is all about to change. The Lumpini police chief has done an about turn and birthday suits are now allowed in the bars of Nana, reversing a prohibition
that has been in place for years, shirked only by the bravest bars with an ace look out system. This is the green light Nana needs to make a serious challenge to Soi Cowboy which holds the unofficial title of Bangkok's premier nightlife area.
Those bars which have removed the weight off their chest include Rainbow 1 and 4, Erotica, Mercury, Spanky's, Angelwitch, Mandarin and Carousel. I have to admit massive surprise at this new policy and hope, for the sake of the bars
in Nana, that it lasts.

Nana Plaza's Pretty Lady Bar will host a countdown to 2010 Full Moon Party on Thursday 31st. For every 10th drink on your bill you will
get one drink free and there will be a wheel of fortune spinning with barfines as prizes. Sexy shows are promised and all customers get a free meal.

There's been some daft carry on in Cowboy with 1 AM closings the odd night. Madness at this time of year.

After a hiccup that saw a very brief closure, it's business as usual at one of my favourite bars, Catz in Pattaya.

Music Station in soi 33 will host a New Year's Eve party with bands from 9.30 PM till late without interruption and there will be a free buffet for customers throughout the night.

Free food has been a highlight of the festive season with nearly every bar in Soi Cowboy offering food on Christmas Eve, most bars featuring pork. The Arab bars were the only venues not in the party mood with no food and few smiles. Nana was very quiet
on Christmas Eve, the quietest it has been on Christmas Eve in the last decade or so, I'd suggest. It sure didn't help that there were heaps of coppers out and about in the Nana area which sparked off various rumours, none of which would
have done trade in Nana any favours.

Bars seem to be busier later, perhaps a refection of tourists preferring to go out later than expats who have to work the next day. In the slow season bars in Cowboy were popular early as expats availed themselves of happy hour prices, but for now many
bars aren't filling up until close to 10 PM. Remember that many expats have taken their annual pilgrimage to their homeland.

It's New Year's Eve on Thursday and that means ASTRONOMICAL priced barfines in some venues, bar owners conscious of keeping the prettiest girls in the bar until at least midnight, ensuring a party atmosphere as late as possible. It's easy
to understand why the owners do it and 1,000 baht barfines are nothing new. But when barfines are increased to 2,000 baht they are just taking the piss – especially when they don't lower the price after midnight! In what is no great surprise,
I sent out emails to a bunch of bar owners asking them what the story was with New Year's Eve barfines and guess what? No-one replied! An empty inbox! Owners and managers usually fire off emails with news and gossip, but not this time.

One of the hottest Tilac girls, who recently returned after being on someone's pay roll for a month or two, Pla, #211, has changed her hairstyle – and it's a disaster. Change it back, girl, or your barfine rate is going to drop.

Joe's Bar in Soi Cowboy has closed. The reasons are yet unknown but it did have a reputation that may have caught up with it for having more checkbins than expected.

Raw Hide partied hard on Christmas Eve and everyone had a smile on their face – some smartass even said the pig on the spit was smiling. A dance contest was held with 11 dancers competing, two of whom were sisters and a good time was had
by all. Popular expat fiction writer Dean Barrett gave out the prize money but wished that he had in fact been the prize.

Every slow season all bar staff as well as bar owners wait for the arrival of the high season. Well, the height of the high season is now. Right now! The busiest weeks are traditionally that between Christmas Day and New Year and the first week of the
new year. There has not been a great increase in customers in the bars, in Bangkok at least. Pattaya, I don't know about, as I haven't been down that way for a while. There really is a bit of a wait and see feeling in the air, although
I think that what they are waiting for won't be coming any time soon.

A recognisable figure in the industry for the past decade, that likeable rogue Big Andy is bored and has put his bar, Club Electric Blue, in Patpong's soi 2, up for sale. Interested parties should swing by and see Big Andy who says he is bored of
doing the same thing for so long. Prepare your heart medication before he tells you how much he wants for it. Good luck, Andy!

Patrick, of Dali Coyote (upstairs from Dali) in soi 33, has recently spent approaching half a million baht on sound equipment and currently has 3 bands playing 6 nights a week. The main band plays 4 nights and the other two play a night each. It should
be noted that the coyotes have left the building and Pat is now concentrating more on running a lounge / rock bar than a coyote bar. The girls from Dali (ground floor) will always encourage you to enter their establishment and there's really
no way of knowing that another bar even exists up the stairs. It has one pool table and a lot of lounges. The girls don't hassle you and it makes a pleasant change from the rough and tumble found elsewhere. If you're after a beer and
a place to relax then it certainly offers that with beers at 140 baht each, a fair price by soi 33 standards.

Tilac in Cowboy was busy mid week but then in one swoop 30 girls were barfined from the bar by a group of punters. Details are a bit sketchy but for sure, whoever was throwing the party that followed would have ended up with lifelong memories – even if
they couldn't remember all the girls' names the next morning. Accumulating lots of good memories is what life's about, right? The girls who remained in the bar were complaining because the dance rotation went from 4 groups to 2
in order to keep the dance floor filled.

Once the top bar in Nana Plaza, Angelwitch is still in business, more than merely surviving but you'd hardly call it thriving. The numbers must be way down from a year ago. Boss Matt is a pro, one of the brightest guys in the industry, and he won't
take it laying down. The venue has introduced several new shows and the Thai partner has been up from Pattaya to crack the whip. She also put a ban on the rock, ordering dance music instead. At long last but you know what, these DJs do what they want and when the owner walks out the door, the DJ slips in some rock songs during the show intermission.

Sister venues Sheba's and Suzy Wong's were two of the hottest spots on Soi Cowboy when they first opened but both have now slipped well down the pecking order, neither really competing with the likes of Baccarra, Tilac or even Shark and Long
Gun. Suzy Wong's went off the boil a while back and Sheba's, while still worth a visit, isn't as good as it was, partly because there are fewer girls. But for sure, part of the problem is the show they have which seems to be in
the wrong venue altogether. Please, could someone tell me how many of us want to see some tattooed Thai dude with his shirt off dancing on stage twirling sticks of fire? A circus act in a gogo bar? Who came up with that nonsense? And if that's
not bad enough, the air-con units have to be shut off for the duration of the show so that the flaming torches don't go out which makes the bar hot, sticky and stink of butane! This debacle is easily fixed. Replace him with some hotter than
hot bird doing exactly the same show.

There are more and more Africans in Bangkok and there are more women entertaining them. HIV rates in Africa are sky high which should be a real concern because there is most definitely an overlap of women who service both Westerners and
Africans. For those of you who are a little more daring than most and for whom a sheath doesn't come into the equation, I really do hope you rethink your behaviour. Perhaps wrapping it up could be a resolution for the new year?

In last week's review of 2009, I forgot to mention the Queen Victoria which has to be the most improved venue in Bangkok. They had all sorts of problems when they opened but today it's a great place to fortify yourself with a good square meal
before you hit Cowboy. Really good English pub food – big helpings, good quality, a pleasant atmosphere and reasonable prices. The
roast lamb hits the spot.

Maybe you can ask Miss Tirapa for a lift home on New Year's Eve if you find yourself in the Beat? Just who is she, I hear you ask. Miss Tirapa is the lucky lass who won the motorbike prize at Bangkok Beat. Here she is pictured with
manager Pierre. Just wait until you hear the prize they have for 2010. More on that next week.

I pride myself on being able to answer Thailand-related questions but I got one this week that I just could not answer with any certainty. A Thailand-based reader has been offered a job in Uganda – and he needs to get a visa before he goes. Uganda has
no representation in Thailand so he has to send his passport outside of Thailand to a Ugandan embassy in another country to get the requisite visa – while he remains here in Thailand. There is a chance that his passport could get lost or he might
have to leave Thailand in a hurry – bad news from home or urgent business perhaps. Is it even legal for a foreign national to send their passport outside of Thailand while they remain there? What happens if the boys in brown were to take an interest
in him while the passport was outside the country? Usually a photocopy of the passport suffices, but what if they insist on eyeballing the original? It's a tough one. What would you do?! Does anyone know the official line?

Cabs are ubiquitous and cheap in Bangkok but there are a few nights of the year when catching a cab becomes much more difficult – and one such night is New Year's Eve. Demand far exceeds supply and drivers can be picky about where they go as well
as become enterprising when it comes to fare. They may refuse to use the meter, instead offering prices that are much higher than what the metered fare would be. Of course the hardest part is just finding a cab that is available. The night of
Loy Kratong is just as bad.

We won't be going anywhere at New Year. The traffic out of Bangkok is at its road rage inducing worst at New Year, especially highway 2, the road from Bangkok up into Isaan. If you're travelling intercity by road, you'll need all the patience
in the world.

It's crooked cops that annoy me more than just about anything else. A good mate relayed a story of his recent run in with the boys in brown. He was pulling into his driveway when his truck was hit by a motorbike ridden by two kids, a 12-year old
and a 13-year old. The kids were totally in the wrong and of course they should not have even been riding a motorbike on a public road in the first place. They were not of legal age to hold a driver's licence. The plod attended and my pal's
car was impounded, the police refusing to return it until he had paid for the kids' hospitals bills and damage to their bike, notwithstanding that he was clearly not in the wrong. He refused to pay bills to which he had no legal liability
so the plod refused to return his car – which was in fact beyond the powers they have under the law! He had to use some high-ranking contacts in the Justice Department to get on to the police to get his vehicle back. If you have a prang here,
even if you're clearly not in the wrong, it can become a real mess.

Any readers looking to buy a property might want to consider the following bargain which is offered for sale by a long time Stickman reader:

• 19 Year Lease for sale:

• Fire sale due to mia noi's gambling debts.

• Possible 90 year extension from the ex mia luang.

• View – good when no carcinogenic smoke from neighbours' rubbish.

• Alarm clock + no soi dogs – Muslim area.

• Entertainment – local karaoke bars.

• Water – seasonal mains.

• Electricity – brown or black variety.

• Drains – good in a north easterly.

• Access – 4WD when possible.

• Internet – has been known.

• Satellite TV – dry season.

• Security – when present.

• Environment – pla ra, durian, sa-dor neighbours.

• Ambience – around the clock construction.

• Pool – soi floods in the wet season.

• Price – 19 million baht.

• No hawkers, agents or any other general low life.

• Contact : dktricky1@yahoo.co.nz

Quote of the week comes from a good mate. "Living in Bangkok is like starring in a Tom & Jerry cartoon."

Reader's story of the week is the excellent "What Women Want"
by Caveman.

A cruel German cruelly signs up a dog for the

The Sun reports a Thai connection in the philandering of a married Premier League manager.

Ingenious work by the boys in brown dupes some local criminals out of hiding.

From today's Post comes a piece outlining much I have talked about in this column about sleazy Sukhumvit Road
.

The local press reports that corruption in Thailand is on the rise.

From the Washington Post comes possible bad news for Thai rice.

More protectionist moves by the government with liquor tax on imported alcohol to rise.

From the New York Times, in industrial Thailand, health concerns and business interests collide.

A German tourist is killed in a hit and run in Pattaya.

A naughty young Dutchman who refused to pay for his meal cops a flying bowl of tom yum goong in Pattaya!

Ask Mrs. Stick

Mrs. Stick is happy to answer any questions regarding inter-racial relationships as well as cultural peculiarities that may be confusing or baffling you.

Question 1: When it comes to Thai girls and farang jobs, I find it weird that my teerak has no interest in what I do. Maybe she does but can't understand or is embarrassed. I can understand how this is weird for them as our jobs
don't really relate to them, plus there is the language barrier. Any thoughts on subject?

Mrs. Stick says: I think it is more important for her to look after you and make sure you are happy at home. That is our responsibility. What happens at work is up to you. She cannot control it or influence it so maybe she doesn't ask you about it. She wants your job to be secure and I think that is the most important thing for her about your work. Maybe she does not understand much about your job too but I don't know cos you don't say what your job is.

Question 2: My teerak started to say I love you after 6 weeks of personal contact and 1 year of phone contact. I will assume I said it first, a fair assumption after I'd had a few beers the second time I visited her. She split with
her sponsor of 3 years who took her over to his country and looked after her well financially but poorly emotionally. I know part of why they split. She refused to say I love you to him. I have this as concrete evidence, having read a long time
ago about Thais being careless with email passwords. It's kind of given a lot of credibility to everything she has ever said to me. I wonder if you have a view on this?

Mrs. Stick says: Why are farang so worried about if she says I love you? You know if she loves you from how she looks after and takes care of you. Don't worry about the words!!! You can say I love you with no effort but to show you love someone takes a lot of time and effort. I never heard my Mum tell Dad she loved him. Never one time. But I know she did because I saw everything she did for him. Love is not about words. It is about actions.

Question 3: I thought I'd run one by you to see what you think. I changed an Australian $200 travellers cheque at a bank exchange booth and the clerk slipped up and gave me the US rate instead of Australian, leading me to be 600 baht in front. My
question is: Do you think they could refer this to Immigration on the grounds I 'stole' from them and I find myself in a nasty situation? Have you known this to happen before?

Mr. Stick says: While a lot of crazy things happen in this country and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that this could come back to haunt you – although I think that would be a really extreme case even by Thailand standards – I think the most that would happen would be that you would be asked to return the difference between the amount you received, and the amount you should have received. It is fairly clear that you did not steal anything and that the bank employee was at fault. One thing you might want to consider is that Thai bank employees are not that well paid and I believe that if there is an error then they have to make up the difference themselves – meaning the person who gave you 600 baht extra may end up footing the difference themselves. That would be a full day's wage for that person. With that in mind, perhaps it is worth returning it?

And so another year passes by, for me, another year of covering the issues of interest to Westerners in Thailand, with emphasis on the nightlife in Bangkok and Pattaya, just another year of Stickman. To everyone who has contributed and has assisted me
putting together this column, I send you my most sincere thanks. A few special thanks go out to Dave the Rave – for your friendship and encouragement, to BKKSteve for the tremendous amount of work and dedication you put into the
photography column, to Grasshopper, my eager proofreader but most of all, special thanks go out to the dirty doctor for your
friendship, encouragement and news tit bits when I can't make the rounds. Here's looking forward to 2010 and hoping that my predictions of doom and gloom are all wrong!

Your Bangkok commentator,

Stick